Applied Probability Models and Intuition

This book is an introductory textbook in Probability, written from the viewpoint of Applied Mathematics. Under that perspective, theoretical rigor is not denigrated, but the book puts a high premium on offering an intuitive overview of key theorems as well as clear evidence of their usefulness. Beyond teaching specific methods, the book strives to create real comfort with the underlying notions of probabilistic thinking. Grasping such ideas is essential if they are to be used with competence and confidence. A primary objective of the book is to demonstrate that Probability and Statistics are, more than anything, just crystallizations of common sense. The reader should come away from each lesson understanding not only how a result was obtained but also why the outcome is plausible.

Praises for Applied Probability

"Offering much more than math, this winning book teachers you to think with probability. Developing the intuition required to understand and recast real world situations in probabilistic terms is a crucial skill in itself, and I can think of no other text that does more in this regard" - Prof. Edward Kaplan, Yale University

A unique and wonderful book, with examples and exercises that are brilliant. They reinforce basic concepts, help students to adapt tools and techniques to new situations (no 'cookie cutter' problems here), and reveal how probability and statistics pervade our lives." - Prof. Robert Shumsky, Dartmouth College

About the Author

Arnold I. Barnett is George Eastman Professor of Management Science and Professor of Statistics at MIT's Sloan School of Management. He has received the President's Award and Expository Writing Award from INFORMS, and the President's Citation from the Flight Safety Foundation for "truly outstanding contributions with respect to safety." At MIT, he has been honored for outstanding teaching of Probability and Statistics.