The Influence of Global Environmental Change on Infectious Disease Dynamics: Workshop Summary

The Twentieth Century Witnessed An Era Of Unprecedented, Large-scale, Anthropogenic Changes To The Natural Environment. Understanding How Environmental Factors Directly And Indirectly Affect The Emergence And Spread Of Infectious Disease Has Assumed Global Importance For Life On This Planet. While The Causal Links Between Environmental Change And Disease Emergence Are Complex, Progress In Understanding These Links, As Well As How Their Impacts May Vary Across Space And Time, Will Require Transdisciplinary, Transnational, Collaborative Research. This Research May Draw Upon The Expertise, Tools, And Approaches From A Variety Of Disciplines. Such Research May Inform Improvements In Global Readiness And Capacity For Surveillance, Detection, And Response To Emerging Microbial Threats To Plant, Animal, And Human Health. The Influence Of Global Environmental Change On Infectious Disease Dynamics Is The Summary Of A Workshop Hosted By The Institute Of Medicine Forum On Microbial Threats In September 2013 To Explore The Scientific And Policy Implications Of The Impacts Of Global Environmental Change On Infectious Disease Emergence, Establishment, And Spread. This Report Examines The Observed And Potential Influence Of Environmental Factors, Acting Both Individually And In Synergy, On Infectious Disease Dynamics. The Report Considers A Range Of Approaches To Improve Global Readiness And Capacity For Surveillance, Detection, And Response To Emerging Microbial Threats To Plant, Animal, And Human Health In The Face Of Ongoing Global Environmental Change--publisher's Description. Workshop Overview -- Contributed Manuscripts -- Animal Migration And Infectious Disease Risk / Sonia Altizer, Rebecca Bartel, And Barbara A. Han -- Climate Change And Infectious Diseases: From Evidence To A Predictive Framework / Sonia Altizer, Richard S. Ostfeld, Pieter T.j. Johnson, Susan Kutz, And C. Drew Harvell -- Migration, Civil Conflict, Mass Gathering Events, And Disease / Chris Beyrer And James Wren Tracy -- The Importance Of Movement In Environmental Change And Infectious Disease / Nina Bharti -- Toward A County-level Map Of Tuberculosis Rates In The U.s. / David Scales, John S. Brownstein, Kamran Khan, And Martin S. Cetron -- Assessing The Origin Of And Potential For International Spread Of Chikungunya Virus From The Caribbean / Kamran Khan, Isaac Bogoch, John S. Brownstein, Jennifer Miniota, Adrian Nicolucci, Wei Hu, Elaine O. Nsoesie, Martin Cetron, Maria Isabella Creatore, Matthew German, And Annelies Wilder-smith -- Eight Critical Questions For Pandemic Prediction / Toph Allen, Kris Murray, Kevin J. Olival, And Peter Daszak -- Misconceptions And Emerging Pathogens: What Can Mathematical Models Tell Us? / Andrew Dobson -- Environmental Change And Infectious Disease: How New Roads Affect The Transmission Of Diarrheal Pathogens In Rural Ecuador / Joseph N.s. Eisenberg, William Cevallos, Karina Ponce, Karen Levy, Sarah J. Bates, James C. Scott, Alan Hubbard, Nadia Vieira, Pablo Endara, Mauricio Espinel, Gabriel Trueba, Lee W. Riley, And James Trostle -- In-roads To The Spread Of Antibiotic Resistance: Regional Patterns Of Microbial Transmission In Northern Coastal Ecuador / Joseph N.s. Eisenberg, Jason Goldstick, William Cevallos, Gabriel Trueba, Karen Levy, James Scott, Bethany Percha, Rosana Segovia, Karina Ponce, Alan Hubbard, Carl Marrs, Betsy Foxman, David L. Smith, And James Trostle. Social Connectedness Can Inhibit Disease Transmission: Social Organization, Cohesion, Village Context, And Infection Risk In Rural Ecuador / Jonathan L. Zelner, James Trostle, Jason E. Goldstick, William Cevallos, James S. House, And Joseph N.s. Eisenberg -- Climate, Wind Storms, And The Risk Of Valley Fever (coccidioidomycosis) / Heidi E. Brown, Andrew C. Comrie, James Tamerius, Mohammed Khan, Joseph A. Tabor, And John N. Galgiani -- Zoonotic Disease Risks Associated With Trade And Movement Of Animals / Nina Marano, Adam J. Langer, G. Gale Galland, Nicole J. Cohen, Emily Lankau, Ashley Marrone, David Mcadam, Casey Barton Behravesh, And Nicki Pesik -- The Global Distribution And Burden Of Dengue / Samir Bhatt, Peter W. Gething, Oliver J. Brady, Jane P. Messina, Andrew W. Farlow, Catherine L. Moyes, John M. Drake, John S. Brownstein, Anne G. Hoen, Osman Sankoh, Monica F. Myers, Dylan B. George, Thomas Jaenisch, G.r. William Wint, Cameron P. Simmons, Thomas W. Scott, Jeremy J. Farrar, And Simon I. Hay -- Circumpolar Populations, Climate And Environmental Change, And The Impact On Infectious Disease Patterns / Alan J. Parkinson -- Climate Change And Human Health: A One Health Approach / Jonathan A. Patz And Micah B. Hahn -- Impacts Of Climate Change On Plant Diseases: New Scenarios For The Future / Marco Pautasso And Michal J. Jeger -- Water Quality And Health For A Sustainable Society / Joan B. Rose, Georgia Mavrommati, And Erin A. Dreelin. Eileen R. Choffnes And Alison Mack, Rapporteurs ; Forum On Microbial Threats, Board On Global Health, Institute Of Medicine Of The National Academies. Includes Bibliographical References.