Getting It Wrong: How Faulty Monetary Statistics Undermine the Fed, the Financial System, and the Economy

Product Description


Blame for the recent financial crisis and subsequent recession has commonly been assigned to everyone from Wall Street firms to individual homeowners. It has been widely argued that the crisis and recession were caused by "greed" and the failure of mainstream economics. In Getting It Wrong, leading economist William Barnett argues instead that there was too little use of the relevant economics, especially from the literature on economic measurement. Barnett contends that as financial instruments became more complex, the simple-sum monetary aggregation formulas used by central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, became obsolete. Instead, a major increase in public availability of best-practice data was needed. Households, firms, and governments, lacking the requisite information, incorrectly assessed systemic risk and significantly increased their leverage and risk-taking activities. Better financial data, Barnett argues, could have signaled the misperceptions and preve


Review


"Leading up to the financial crisis, investors displayed an incorrect assessment of systemic risk and significantly increased their leverage and risk-taking activities. Barnett documents that better Federal Reserve data could have signaled the error in that view. This error led to the credit-driven, asset-price bubble in the US housing market. He also has shown that as a result of measurement errors, monetary policy was damaged, with tragic consequences. He is the world's foremost authority in the study of monetary and financial aggregation using index number and aggregation theory."--James J. Heckman, University of Chicago and University College Dublin, Nobel Laureate in Economics


"I would never fly in an airplane designed by an economist. Unfortunately, I have to live in an economy where policy makers listen to economists. Professor Barnett, a former rocket scientist, shows clearly how important it is that economists pay attention to details and teaches economists how to do far better. Until economists absorb these lessons, the policy makers they advise will be flying blind."--Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, Stanford University


" Getting It Wrong is a gripping combination of colorful mini-biographies, memoir from a close witness to our financial troubles, and well-argued case for better monetary statistics. This book first makes you care about monetary aggregation and then masterfully shows you how it should be done."--Julio J. Rotemberg, William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School


" Getting It Wrong is a magisterial treatment on the measurement of monetary aggregates by the world's foremost authority. Barnett informs us about how to get the measurements right. He also shows us how the Federal Reserve gets them wrong. Indeed, if Paul Volcker's dashboard would have displayed Barnett's monetary metrics, the severe 1981--82 recession might never have occurred. Alas, the Fed's money supply gauges remain in need of an overhaul by Barnett, a monetary master craftsman."--Steve H. Hanke, Professor, Johns Hopkins University, and Forbes magazine columnist


"You would think that by now so much has been written about the causes of the 2007--08 financial crisis that nothing else needs to be said. This book persuasively explains why any such assumption would be wrong. It turns out that mis-measured money is another culprit that has not been given its due. Professor Barnett, in this remarkable book, corrects this oversight. Economists, public policy makers, and informed students of monetary policy will never think about the subject the same way after reading this path-breaking book."--Robert E. Litan, Kauffman Foundation Vice President for Research and Policy and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow


" Getting It Wrong gives masterful insights into causes of the financial crisis beyond simplistic notions of 'greed' or 'failure of theory.' This book shows how faulty measures led to incor